May 19, 2022
In Welcome to the Cars Forum
Conclusions of that prediction experiment: The predicted effects are much larger than in reality (the orange bars are much more to the right than the blue bars). The forecasts were on average 9.1 times too optimistic. There seems to be little or no correlation between Latest Mailing Database predicted effectiveness and actual effectiveness. The graph is sorted by actual effectiveness (blue bars) but no pattern is visible in the orange bars. Remarkably, the laymen (participants of the online panel Prolific) predicted the results even better than the experts. But no group scored better than pure Latest Mailing Database chance. Applications How can you apply this in practice? It gives you support to deviate from what the Hippo ( Highest Paid Person's Opinion ) thinks: no one has a monopoly on the truth. And the results once again underline the importance of context, which means that you often have to empirically Latest Mailing Database test promising interventions yourself in the environment that is important to you. Some interventions and techniques have a greater chance of success, but nothing is certain and context Latest Mailing Database and implementation determine the actual effect. To avoid hindsight bias ( Everything is obvious, once you know Latest Mailing Database the answer ), it is also a good idea to record predictions in advance. This may also increase the learning effects. hich parties will govern your municipality in the next 4 years? Today you can determine it by casting your vote in the municipal elections. Or maybe you already Latest Mailing Database have. To prevent the spread of the coronavirus, we can vote again for 3 days.